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Recently I read somewhere a quote about how a major study a few decades ago showed that people did not see value in having mobile phones when asked about it. According to that study their wouldn't be a market for the mobile phone. Of course this study proved wrong..

Silly thing is, I can't remember where I read or heard this and I can't find anything on the web.

Has anyone heard of such a study and have a pointer to more information about it?

I'd like to use this as an example of how asking people what they want/need doesn't give you answers you can rely on. (And thus you need to observe behavior instead of listen to their opinions.)

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Really feels off topic for a UX forum. :( – Glen Lipka Dec 4 at 17:08
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not sure I agree with you glen - the last bit in brackets brings it back in line with UX (don't rely on opinions of your user - observe behaviour and explore contexts of use etc etc.) - poor title for the question though vandam perhaps you can edit...? – Jon Dodd Dec 4 at 23:19
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Agreed, the title could be better, i changed it. – vandam Dec 6 at 20:33

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Here is a brilliant lecture on the subject: Are we in control of our own decisions? by Dan Ariely at TED. There's a part about texts in the interfaces which I think every UX designer must see.

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Thanks for the link, great TED! – Phil Dec 5 at 12:50
Great lecture, thanks! – Zoltán Gócza Dec 6 at 19:25
Will surely watch that, thanks! – vandam Dec 6 at 20:35
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Here's a better example that people can relate to, taken from the book "Designing the obvious":

A few weeks ago, I heard an interesting story that did a nice job of revealing the differences between how people think they act and how they actually act. The story was about a new sandwich from a fast-food restaurant.

See, the marketers did lots of research before releasing the idea upon the public. They asked a bunch of people if they would find appealing the idea of ordering a low-carb version of their hottest-selling cheeseburger. Resound-ingly, people said they would, indeed, love to take their usual trip to the establishment and order something they know is good for them and their families. The marketers knew they were on to something. So they whipped up a plan, sent the recipe-makers into action, and released the sandwich, sure that their hours of hard work would pay off and earn the company big dividends.

Reality kicked in a short while later. The sandwich failed miserably and quickly disappeared from the menu.

Why, you ask?

People often don't do what they think they would do. They don't act the way they think they would act. We can talk for hours about how we would respond in any given situation, but we don't really know what will happen when the hypothetical becomes real. The sandwich failed to live up to its promise because the promise was based on meaningless conversations with people who thought they would do the smart, responsible thing and make the healthy choice.

The marketers, I'm sure, didn't mean to have meaningless conversations. It's more likely that they asked leading questions, such as "Would you choose to eat the healthier version when given the choice?" It's a question designed to make the person who says, "No, I wouldn't" feel like an idiot for doing so. It's a question designed to get a "Yes, I would."

And even if the questions were presented in an unbiased way, you can't just walk up to people on the street and ask them what they would do. No one really knows what he or she would do. History shows us that people don't always make the right choices. They make comfortable choices. They make safe choices. More to the point, they make the choices they know how to make.

It's difficult to predict how we'd make decisions in hypothetical situations. Hardly anyone can do this well. When we intentionally begin making better choices, we usually do so in increments, making small improvements for a short time. At some point we find ourselves in a stressful situation and immediately revert. We fall back on the types of choices we've been making our whole lives. The ones we know how to make.

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Thanks a lot for that story, it sure proves the point I'm trying to make I'm sure this is useful. – vandam Dec 6 at 20:33
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New Coke and the Aeron chair are good e examples where research turned out to be absolutely misleading. Here's a post about these two misleading researches.

Btw, Henry Ford knew it:

If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses

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